The global 2.8% GDP average masks a critical divergence: Western markets are experiencing -1–2% contraction while India surges at 6.5%+ and Emerging Asia maintains 4.5% growth. The 2025 "Inventory Air Pocket" is creating a 12–18% volume dip in H1-2026, while China's anti-involution policy lifts export cost floors, eroding margin buffers across global supply chains.
M&A and price hikes now account for over 70% of reported growth, with organic volume turning negative. Scope-focused deals fail 3× more often than scale deals, adding a heavy complexity tax to already stretched operations. Regulatory review cycles now average 18 months, turning capital into "dead" assets waiting for approval.
56% of AI pilots stall at proof-of-concept, with spend draining run-the-business budgets without delivering returns. The shift from chat-bot co-pilots to agentic AI can unlock 40% cycle-time reductions, but data-silo rights block autonomous execution—requiring restructure for cross-functional data ownership.
The strategic reallocation blueprint is clear: redirect CAPEX to India and aligned-bloc supply chains targeting 6–8% trade growth; accelerate deep-tech R&D in sectors with high entry barriers like defense and energy transition; monetize operational data—treating ops as a revenue engine with 3–5× higher margins. Implement a 30–60–90 day execution plan: audit geography, halt non-core M&A, and launch agentic AI pilots.